Target Practice: Week Nine in the NFL

It’s always tough to find the right receivers each week for your fantasy matchup. One of the keys is not just what a player has done, but in a lot of cases you have to consider the potential of a player when you look their matchup. Another factor that needs to be included into this equation is which players are getting their number called most.

Look Who’s Hot….

If you are a fan of, and more importantly a participant in, a PPR league than you have to love what you are seeing from wide receiver Devin Hester. In the last three weeks he’s averaged nine targets per game and with so many chances he’s delivered. Hester has 21 receptions for 265 yards and is looking more and more like a go to receiver in Chicago. He can only get better and if you drafted him as your number three, you’ve got yourself what looks to be a great steal in the second half.

It’s not taking much effort, but the Eagle’s second year receiver DeSean Jackson is quickly emerging as an elite player in this league. He’s only needed ten targets in his last two games and three touches in each to find the end zone three times. With two receptions and one scintillating 67-yard end around in week seven Jackson scored twice. Last Sunday he only needed three catches to work his magic and find pay-dirt. The explosive receiver is averaging a little more than four touches per game and around 20 yards per touch. Now that’s explosive!

Who’s worried….
If you drafted Michael Crabtree back in August and have had the patience to wait all this time, relax because not only are you the most patient ever, but the pay-off could be coming soon. In his first two games as an NFL receiver Crabtree has had plenty of chances with 15 targets, but more importantly he’s already starting to produce with 11 receptions for 137 yards (projected over 16 games; 88 receptions, 1,096-yards)

For some fantasy owners, it might be time to worry when your number one receiver has only 125 yards combined in his last two games and has not scored a touchdown in his last three starts. Add to the facts that he was just injured a week ago and questionable for most of the week and it might make sense for panic to set in, but when that receiver is Andre Johnson you really haven’t much to worry about. This little dip in production is a mere bump in the road. Johnson was back on the field Sunday, he’s still one of the most targeted receivers in the game with (80) and a tremendous receiving talent.

Keep your Eye on these gems…
The Jets tight end Dustin Keller has been on a bit of a circus string with his numbers fluctuating from week to week. In the two previous weeks Keller has seen his target numbers go from 10 in week six down to just four in week seven. Week eight treated the Jet’s second year tight end much better with 13 targets and his production improved greatly with eight grabs for 76 yards and a touchdown. As the rookie Mark Sanchez continues to mature under center, we’d expect to see him lean more on his tight end going forward.

A couple of players that fantasy owners should continue to monitor are a pair of Indy receivers. With Reggie Wayne drawing a lot of attention and well deserved with 20 targets in week eight, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon continue to warrant some discussion. Over the past two weeks both receivers have seen plenty of action in the Colts passing game with 14 and 16 targets respectively. As long as number 18 is under center, these two will at least merit WR3 considerations moving ahead. Also, the real missing stat here is Manning’s 26 completions per game!

Here is the breakdown for fantasy pass catchers (targets) this season;

Through Eight weeks:

Top-10 Targeted Pass-catchers

Player                                                   Targt    Recpt    FPTS

Johnson, Andre WR HOU      80     44     92

Smith, Steve WR NYG         78     53     87

Wayne, Reggie WR IND        77     51     102

Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI      73     47     78

Burleson, Nate WR SEA        66     38     59

Moss, Randy WR NE             66     43     77

White, Roddy WR ATL                 66     37     88

Smith, Steve WR CAR         65     30     47

Ochocinco, Chad WR CIN      64     39     82

Welker, Wes WR NE            62     46     70

[points based on traditional scoring]

Coming completely out of left field, I will promote Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White. Surprised? Look at these scenarios that home come together for White this week. The Titans are at home after two weeks preparing for an opponent, after they were embarrassed by a pitiful performance in a blow out loss. Additionally, they are winless against an opponent they usually dominate, who beat them handily earlier this season. Lastly the Titans are starting a new QB this week and they should be leaning even heavier on the running game. As another alternative both Raiders backs could show up as long as the rest of the team can keep it close.

Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears is my WR this week.  For some teams he may be an every week start but for some he is not. Hester is at home against a Cleveland Browns defense that is struggling on all levels. Hester participates on all those levels at least some in every game. Whether it be with a reception, a run, a wildcat pass, or even a return I have a feeling Hester will score at least one touchdown.  The other WR I want to throw out there was almost my main guy this wee but I could not bring myself to do it, Terrell Owens.  Owens has been a secondary option since Fitzpatrick took over for Edwards, but I got a feeling he shows up in a big way this weekend.

Since I’m going on instinct as much as, if not more than, stats this week I’ll throw Dustin Keller’s name into the mix.  Keller started hot, but has dropped off almost completely these last few games.  This weekend Keller’s NY Jets will play a Miami Dolphins team that they have already faced once this season in a tight game. The Dolphins run a ¾ defensive front. As I have stated before most ¾ teams can be hurt by tight ends down the middle of the field.  For my second TE option I leave you with GB’s Donald Lee, If he doesn’t have to sit back and help pass protect, he could be effective.

I will go back to the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams game to get my Defense for this week.  One of these two defenses should have a nice game, and because of the extra week of prep time I’ll go with the Lions.  St. Louis’s O-line has struggled, their WRs are consistently hurt, and their QB seems to end up that way. Jim Swartz would like to use this game to give a glimpse into how his defense of the future will play.  The Jaguars Titans game is another game where one of the defenses will show up, I’m picking the Titans but who knows.

Last Weeks Favorite Five

Matt Cassel – 1 TD 97 yards and 3 INTs, Not what I expected

Donald Brown – Injured, but his replacement scored.

Sam Aiken – 1 TD 66 yards, I love it when a plan comes together!

Heath Miller – 38 yards, Sorry.

Indianapolis Colts – 1 TD, 3 Sacks and 2 INTS, also only give up 6 points. Not bad.

I selected Oakland’s Darren McFadden for my week two Favorite Five, and here he is again. Houston has been torched by running back this season. In week one Thomas Jones dropped 107 on them. Then in week two Chris Johnson broke two long runs for touchdowns and totaled 197 rushing yards not to mention a 90 yard plus touchdown reception. Finally this past weekend Maurice Jones-Drew scored three touchdowns and 119 rushing yards. As long as Oakland can stay in the game, McFadden should be a large part of the Oakland offense. Houston’s Steve Slaton in also a nice play since Oakland can not cover the run.

Who is the number one reliever in Chicago? If I run the team I’d start Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox and use Devin Hester as the third therefore freeing him up to be the full time punt and kick returner, maybe run him out of the victory formation as a desperation play (you can email me for further explanation of that idea). Well since I do not run the team and Hester is the so-called number one receiver, I look for him to have a nice game against the Detroit Lions. Santana Moss, a similar yet extensively more experienced receiver, put up 178 yards in a loss to the Lions on Sunday. Also Percy Harvin, again with a similar skill set, scored against them in week two. Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler should attempt to force feed Hester the ball, and depending on how banged up RB Matt Forte is Hester may see some rushing attempts to go with his returns and receptions.  Third receiver Johnny Knox should also be considered this weekend.

If you are still holding on to an Oakland Raider besides McFadden, hopefully it is tight end Zach Miller. This may be the weekend that Miller lives up to his off season billing as a top twelve TE. As have I stated before Houston can not cover tight ends, add this to the fact that Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell can not seem to find his wide receivers, and it should equal a big day for Miller. Whether coming from behind or dumping off because of pressure, Miller and McFadden should both be heavily depended on this weekend. By The Way, keep an eye on the Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley Monday night in Minnesota.

Although their team has been decimated by injuries, The Buffalo Bills defense could emerge as a nice desperation play. The Bills will face a Miami Dolphins team that just lost QB Chad Pennington, and will be starting a new era behind Chad Henne. Buffalo should pester an inexperienced Henne with multiple blitzes, which will lead to sacks and interceptions. The San Francisco 49ers is also a defense worth starting this weekend.

Last Weeks Favorite Five

Trent Edwards – Don’t get much more of a bust than that.

Tashard Choice – Touchdown and decent yardage, That’s average but he gives you a couple more games worth or use

Josh Cribbs – Again, BUST!!! Sorry

Vernon Davis – I’d say I nailed that one, 96 yards and 2 TDs!!!

Green Bay Packers – 3 turnovers and one Sack, I guess that’s an OK day.